Some Future Possibilities
Here are my thoughts about what may happen in the future. Some of the events listed under medium-term and long-term could occur in the short-term. Their impact would be much deeper and longer in duration than those listed under short-term.
Short-term events (next several decades)
- Shared strategic defense becomes basis of new global security order
- Democracy and trade liberalization become universal
- Long-wave fluctuation (eg. Kondratyev waves) smoothed out
- Further integration of key regions
- Russia completes transition to democratic market society
- China introduces democratic reforms
- United States virtual economy exceeds physical economy
But danger of:
- New multipolarity if shared strategic defense is not achieved
- Global economic competition, accelerating obsolescence of human skills
- Struggle between liberalizers and traditionalists
- Tensions over majority-minority relations
- Renewed inter-generational conflict
- Reactions to global market forces and global policing
- Falling cost of biological weapons of mass destruction
- Tightening population-food balances, water shortages, new epidemics
Medium-term events (next several centuries)
- Democratic world government directly accountable to a world electorate
- Stabilization of world population and ecology
- Reduction of workweek to three days or less
- Extended lifespan or cure for aging, regeneration of organs and cells
- Acceptance of human diversity, identity conflict lessens
- Colonization of outer space and planets
- Discovery of extraterrestrial life and possibly intelligent ET life
But danger of:
- Meritocracy that leads to new social darwinism or new mandarinism
- Abuse of human genetic code, competitive genetic programming
- Confrontation between utility-maximizing behavior and intrinsic values
- New religions and ideologies that give belonging at the price of freedom
- Conflict between Earth and colonial planets, conflict with ET life
- Major climate change (new ice age or global warming)
Long-term events (next several millennia and beyond)
- Reduction of workweek to two days or less
- Attenuation of racial and other identity differences
- Substantial modification of human behavior
- Much greater understanding and control of physical nature
- Travel to and settlement of other star systems and galaxies
- Travel to other dimensions and planes of existence
- Routine use of paranormal abilities
But danger of:
- Cycles of civilization or civilizational rigidity
- More radical abuse of control over nature and human behavior
- New intelligent species (or robots) come to dominate
- Archaeological discoveries that radically change historical context
- Time travel and interference with past or future
- Other unexpected consequences of new science and technology
- Unavoidable astrophysical disaster
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